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NAVPATH LOCAL WEATHER & AREA BULLETIN

Bulletin No. NPA/WX/2026-01 · Issued: 09 Aug 2026, IST Valid: 0830 IST 09 Aug – 0830 IST 14 Aug 2026 Area: Kottayam District (Kottayam / Kumarakom / Vaikom)

Aug 09, 2026 6 min read
NAVPATH LOCAL WEATHER & AREA BULLETIN

PART A — SYNOPTIC SITUATION & SUMMARY

Southwest monsoon ACTIVE over Kerala.

A fresh low-pressure area is forming over the NW Bay of Bengal; strong lower-level westerlies prevail over Kerala.

The extreme spell of 01–07 Aug is WEAKENING. Recent 24-hr rainfall (to 0830 IST 07 Aug): Kumarakom 140 mm, Vaikom AWS 130 mm, Kottayam town 90 mm.

State rainfall 01–04 Aug was 181% above normal. Rivers (Meenachil) and Vembanad backwaters remain ELEVATED; low-lying areas (Kumarakom, Vaikom, Kottayam town fringes) still carry residual waterlogging.

PART B — FIVE-DAY FORECAST & PROBABILITIES, KOTTAYAM DISTRICT (09–13 AUG 2026)

SUN 09 AUG — Cloudy; light–moderate rain, few spells. Rain probability: 90%. Heavy rain probability: 15%. Local flood/waterlogging: 30% residual. IMD alert: NIL.

MON 10 AUG — Light–moderate rain at times. Rain probability: 80%. Heavy rain probability: 10%. Local flood/waterlogging: 20%. IMD alert: NIL.

TUE 11 AUG — Light–moderate rain at times. Rain probability: 75%. Heavy rain probability: 10%. Local flood/waterlogging: 15%. IMD alert: NIL.

WED 12 AUG — Light–moderate rain; isolated showers. Rain probability: 75%. Heavy rain probability: 10%. Local flood/waterlogging: 10%. IMD alert: NIL.

THU 13 AUG — Partly cloudy; isolated rain/thunder. Rain probability: 70%. Heavy rain probability: 10%. Local flood/waterlogging: 10%. IMD alert: NIL.

Wind: SW/W 15–25 km/h, easing after 09 Aug. Squally 40–50 km/h coastal warning lapses after 08 Aug.

IMD district outlook 09–13 Aug: LIGHT TO MODERATE rain, very likely; NO heavy-rainfall warning issued.

Caution: fresh Bay of Bengal low may re-strengthen monsoon flow around 12–14 Aug; monitor daily IMD bulletins.

PART C — IMD ALERT CRITERIA

YELLOW: Heavy rain 64.5–115.5 mm/24h at isolated places. Be updated and watch the situation.

ORANGE: Very heavy rain 115.6–204.4 mm/24h. Be prepared for flooding/landslide impacts.

RED: Extremely heavy rain above 204.4 mm/24h. Take action; flash flooding and evacuation may be required.

PART D — DISTRICT COLLECTOR CLOSURE CRITERIA (KOTTAYAM)

No fixed statutory rainfall threshold exists. The District Collector, as Chairperson of DDMA, considers IMD alert colour, river levels, flooding of roads and school access, schools being used as relief camps, landslip risk in the eastern hill belt, and KSEB/road-safety hazards.

Observed pattern during the August 2026 spell: RED alert = closure near-certain; ORANGE = closure usual; YELLOW = case-by-case, normally OPEN unless camps or flooding persist.

PART E — DAILY MARINE ALMANAC, KOTTAYAM AREA

(09–13 AUG 2026) All times are IST.

SKY / WEATHER: Sun 09 — Cloudy, rain spells.

Mon 10 — Cloudy, rain at times.

Tue 11 — Partly cloudy, light rain.

Wed 12 — Partly cloudy, isolated rain.

Thu 13 — Partly cloudy, isolated thunder.

RAIN PROBABILITY: 90% | 80% | 75% | 75% | 70%.

PRECIPITATION: 8–15 mm | 5–12 mm | 5–10 mm | 3–8 mm | 3–8 mm.

CLOUD COVER: 85% | 80% | 70% | 65% | 60%.

SUNSHINE: 2–3 h | 3–4 h | 4–5 h | 5–6 h | 5–6 h.

VISIBILITY: Sun 09 — 4–8 km in rain, otherwise 10 km.

Mon 10 — 6–8 km in rain, otherwise 10 km.

Tue 11 — 8–10 km.

Wed 12 — 10 km.

Thu 13 — 10 km.

HUMIDITY (AM/PM): 90/80% | 88/78% | 86/76% | 85/74% | 84/74%. UV INDEX / SUNBURN: 3–5 MOD | 4–6 MOD | 5–7 HIGH | 5–7 HIGH | 6–7 HIGH.

SUNRISE / SUNSET: approximately

06:14 / 18:44 on 09–10 Aug

06:14 / 18:43 on 11–13 Aug.

MOON PHASE:

Waning Crescent through 11 Aug; New Moon on 12 Aug at approximately 23:07 IST.

KOCHI HIGH WATER:

09 Aug 0452 (0.8), 1302 (0.7);

10 Aug 0547 (0.8), 1449 (0.7);

11 Aug 0627 (0.9), 1631 (0.7);

12 Aug 0702 (0.9), 1755 (0.7);

13 Aug 0734 (0.9), 1904 (0.8).

KOCHI LOW WATER:

09 Aug 0949 (0.7), 2133 (0.1);

10 Aug 1122 (0.6), 2241 (0.1);

11 Aug 1214 (0.6), 2340 (0.1);

12 Aug 1256 (0.5);

13 Aug 0031 (0.1),

1335 (0.4).

KUMARAKOM / VAIKOM HIGH WATER ESTIMATES:

09 Aug ~0730 & ~1540;

10 Aug ~0825 & ~1725;

11 Aug ~0905 & ~1910;

12 Aug ~0940 & ~2030;

13 Aug ~1010 & ~2140.

TIDE NOTES: Kochi predictions are in IST and heights are in metres above datum. Kumarakom and Vaikom are non-standard backwater stations; times are estimates. Current monsoon river discharge dominates the backwaters, so levels may remain high regardless of tide. This section is not for navigation. SUN NOTES: UV reaches HIGH in sunny breaks around 1100–1500 IST from 11 Aug as cloud thins. Sunburn may occur quickly; sunscreen is advised.

PART F — PROBABILITY OF HOLIDAY DECLARATION BY DISTRICT COLLECTOR, KOTTAYAM

SUN 09 AUG — 05% — Sunday; institutions closed by default and no warning in force.

MON 10 AUG — 20% — No IMD warning, but relief camps/residual flooding may persist.

TUE 11 AUG — 10% — Light–moderate rain only; rivers expected to recede.

WED 12 AUG — 10% — No warning forecast; watch the Bay of Bengal low.

THU 13 AUG — 10% — No warning forecast; conditions expected to normalise.

These percentages are NavPath analytical estimates only and are NOT official predictions. Re-check IMD and DDMA Kottayam announcements for next-day orders.

PART G — MARINERS' NOTES & ADVISORIES

• Fishermen warning and squally-wind advisory for the Kerala coast lapses after 08 Aug.

• Kerala ports including Kochi and Alappuzha: Local Cautionary Signal No. III was reported hoisted as of 07 Aug; verify the current status daily.

• Vembanad Lake / Kumarakom backwaters: elevated levels; exercise caution near spillways and river mouths until levels recede.

• Avoid riverbanks, flooded roads and hill-area night travel until DDMA advisories are withdrawn.

SOURCES & METHOD IMD Met Centre Thiruvananthapuram — District Rainfall Forecast & Daily Weather Report, issued 07 Aug 2026; KSDMA rainfall alerts; DDMA Kottayam closure information. Probabilities in this bulletin are NavPath analytical estimates based on available weather and local-condition information. Data are current as at the time of issue and weather conditions can change rapidly.

LEGAL DISCLAIMER

This bulletin is prepared by NavPath Academy Private Limited for general information and educational purposes only. It is NOT an official forecast, warning or government communication. Official forecasts and alerts are issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD); holiday/closure orders are issued by the District Collector / District Disaster Management Authority, Kottayam. Always verify official sources before making travel, academic, marine or safety decisions.

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